U.S. Stock Market

Last Friday, U.S. stocks rallied after a turbulent week exacerbated by President Trump’s escalating trade war and concerns about a potential economic recession. The rally was propelled by solid gains across major tech stocks and lower-than-expected inflation data, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq recording their highest single-day percentage gains since the day after the November 6 U.S. presidential election. Despite the rebound, the indices closed lower for the fourth consecutive week. Market anxiety remains high due to tariff threats and policy uncertainty, affecting consumer confidence and economic outlook.

A-shares Market

On Monday, China’s major stock indices saw initial gains but later fell back, with the Shanghai Composite Index up by 0.28% at midday. Dairy stocks led the advance due to new policies aimed at boosting consumption and childbirth subsidies. Notably, Hohhot introduced significant subsidies for families, influencing consumer spending and potentially serving as a model for nationwide policy.

International Foreign Exchange

Last Friday, the euro appreciated following a fiscal agreement among German parties to potentially increase defense spending and stimulate growth in Europe’s largest economy. This news coincided with a weaker U.S. dollar against the euro, but gains against the Swiss franc and Japanese yen, amid inflation concerns suggesting a cautious Federal Reserve. Merz, potentially Germany’s next Chancellor, gained crucial Green Party support for significant national borrowing. The agreement, including a €500 billion infrastructure fund, is likely to be approved next week. As geopolitical tensions and domestic policies evolve, the euro is expected to strengthen against major currencies, with continued fluctuation in the dollar influenced by tariff concerns.

Gold and Oil Prices

Last Friday, gold prices surged past the $3,000 mark for the first time, driven by investors seeking safe-haven assets amid economic uncertainties triggered by President Trump’s tariff wars. Spot gold reached a record high of $3,004.86 before settling at $2,986.26 due to profit-taking. Futures gold also rose by 0.3% to $3,001.10. The rise in gold prices, which have increased nearly 14% this year, is partly due to concerns over the impact of Trump’s tariffs and the resultant stock market volatility. Central bank demand, especially from major Asian nations that have been increasing their gold reserves for four consecutive months, and expectations of relaxed monetary policies by the Federal Reserve have also supported gold prices. Goldman Sachs reported that U.S. policy uncertainties could push gold prices even higher, with a potential upward risk to their forecast range of $3,100 to $3,300 by the end of 2025.

Oil prices rebounded by 1% last Friday, stabilizing after a week of mixed performance amid dimming prospects for a quick end to the Ukraine conflict, which could reintegrate Russian energy supplies into Western markets. Brent crude futures closed up at $70.58 per barrel, while U.S. crude settled at $67.18 per barrel. Analysts from Commerzbank noted that oil prices have hovered around $70 recently, and future trends depend on political developments. Russian President Putin indicated that a quick resolution to the conflict is unlikely, further influenced by the expiration of licenses allowing energy trades with Russian financial institutions and a potential global oil oversupply warned by the International Energy Agency.