Key Focus This Week:
“Policy Expectations and Q2 Earnings Season Shift the Market Toward Fundamentals”
At the start of the week, financial markets are once again focused on the interest rate outlook in both the United States and Canada.
In the United States, the Federal Reserve will release the minutes from its June FOMC meeting on Wednesday. Investors will closely examine the discussions for further insight into how policymakers are balancing persistent inflation pressures against a labor market that is showing signs of moderation. While softer employment data has eased concerns over additional near-term rate hikes, inflation remains sufficiently sticky for the Fed to maintain a cautious stance.
At the same time, U.S. services sector activity continued to expand in June, suggesting that despite slower hiring, the broader economy remains resilient. This combination of moderate economic growth and lingering inflation pressures is likely to keep the timing and trajectory of future monetary policy uncertain.
In Canada, the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey and the Canadian Survey of Consumer Expectations will provide fresh insight into business confidence, hiring intentions, household finances, and inflation expectations. This will be followed by Friday’s closely watched Labour Force Survey, which is expected to play an important role ahead of the Bank of Canada’s July 15 interest rate decision.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices remain an important driver for Canadian markets. Following OPEC+’s decision to raise August production targets and the continued recovery of oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have come under pressure. While lower oil prices could help ease broader inflation concerns, they may also weigh on Canadian energy stocks and the Canadian dollar (CAD).
Week’s Key Economic Data & News Recap
U.S. Labour Market Shows Greater-Than-Expected Cooling
U.S. non-farm payroll growth slowed sharply in June, coming in well below market expectations, while employment gains for the previous two months were revised lower. Although the unemployment rate edged down, the decline was largely driven by a drop in the labour force participation rate to its lowest level since March 2021.
The report reduced expectations for any near-term Federal Reserve rate hikes. Following the release, the U.S. dollar weakened while Treasury yields briefly moved lower.
U.S. Equity Market Leadership Continues to Rotate
Despite the shortened trading week, major U.S. equity indices finished higher overall, although sector performance became increasingly divergent. The Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new record closing high, while a sharp pullback in semiconductor stocks late in the week weighed on the Nasdaq.
Financials, healthcare and other defensive sectors outperformed, suggesting that market leadership is becoming less concentrated in large-cap technology stocks. Meanwhile, investors continue to closely monitor valuations and AI-related capital spending, leaving semiconductor and AI stocks susceptible to elevated volatility.
Oil Prices Retreat Toward Pre-Conflict Levels
As crude oil exports from the Gulf region gradually resumed, oil prices declined to levels seen before the Iran conflict escalated. Negotiations regarding shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remain ongoing.
The temporary U.S.-Iran agreement has reduced part of the geopolitical risk premium, although uncertainty surrounding export recovery and the final agreement remains. Lower oil prices may help ease inflation pressures but could also weigh on Canadian energy equities and the Canadian dollar.
Gold Rebounds on Weak U.S. Employment Report
After four consecutive weeks of declines, gold prices rebounded last week. Softer-than-expected U.S. employment data reduced expectations for additional Federal Reserve tightening.
A weaker U.S. dollar and shifting interest rate expectations supported precious metals, allowing gold to post its first weekly gain since late May. Nevertheless, gold prices remain well below the record highs reached earlier this year.
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Market Performance Review – Last Week
Source: Yahoo Finance
Canadian Equities:
Last week, the S&P/TSX Composite Index traded within a range of 34,700.00 to 35,350.00, advancing approximately 1.22% over the five-day period to close at 35,247.30.
Source: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Equities:
Source: Yahoo Finance
U.S. Bonds:
The CBOE 10-Year Treasury Note Yield traded within a range of 4.37% to 4.50%, increasing approximately 2.12%over the week to close at 4.485%.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Forex Market：
The USD/CAD exchange rate traded within a range of 1.4170 to 1.4240, declining approximately 0.14% over the week to close at 1.4181.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Gold & Silver Market:
Gold Futures traded within a range of 3,980.00 to 4,145.00, gaining approximately 2.58% during the week to close at4,134.60. Silver Futures traded between 57.70 and 61.90, rising approximately 5.09% to close at 61.32.
Source: Yahoo Finance
Oil Market:
Brent Crude Oil Futures traded within a range of US$70.30 to US$74.40 per barrel, declining approximately 4.84%over the week to close at US$71.62 per barrel.
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Financial Market Data Copyright © 2026 AimStar myportfolio. Data as of July 6th, 2026, 12:30 PM EST
WHAT'S HAPPENING THIS WEEK
Upcoming Events (July 6 – July 10, 2026)
Monday, July 6
- Investors will continue to assess last week’s U.S. June employment report, evolving Federal Reserve rate expectations, Treasury yields, and technology sector performance.
- The second-quarter earnings season officially begins, with markets shifting attention toward corporate earnings and guidance for the second half of the year.
Tuesday, July 7
- Penguin Solutions reports earnings before market open.
- Enerpac Tool Group, Kura Sushi, and Saratoga Investment report earnings after market close.
Wednesday, July 8
- Helen of Troy reports earnings before market open.
- Levi Strauss and AZZ Inc. report earnings after market close.
- Federal Reserve releases the June FOMC Meeting Minutes (2:00 PM EDT).
Thursday, July 9
- PepsiCo, Byrna Technologies, Simply Good Foods, and Neurotech International report earnings before market open.
- WD-40 and Simulation Plus report earnings after market close.
Friday, July 10
- Delta Air Lines reports earnings before market open.
Author by: Sarah San
Edited & Published by: Sarah San
July 6th , 2026 13:00 PM EST. 10 min read
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